Terror Rate

by Ray Fogerlund

Preface:

It is ironic the way that things sometimes work out. I was recently informed that Mike, (Max), Maxakuli had passed away. As I had recently written an article for this publication at his repeated behest, I was curious if it had been published yet. Jason Lee told me that it had not been. Let me apologize in advance to the readers as I hastily typed out this "article" to get Max off my back. You see, he was half threatening to ruin my reputation if I didn't make good on my prior promise to him! How he would do that was left, characteristically, up to my imagination. Since I pounded it out I have had some minor regrets thinking that it could have been more polished and less self centered, but I had already hit the send button on my computer, you know?

In the end, it seems fitting that it comes to you as a somewhat rough draft. In the world of people, Max was what I would consider a rough draft, but, I, for one, simply had to like the guy! By the way, I am not just saying that because he died, okay? He sent me to Monte Carlo this year armed with a few names to look up in case I had any problems over there, but of course I didn't. Mike was great for the game of backgammon and he was searching for his successor as the unofficial "keeper of records" right up until his demise. I wonder what will become of all his memorabilia?

I am not religious but I hope he went to a place where they can play backgammon. It seems like they must do it in hell, (don't you think?), so it is no problem if he went there. The ultimate bad beat for Mike would be if he went to heaven, and it wasn't allowed! Not to mention anything else he might have liked! May you rest in peace, Max, thank you for the memories.

Ray

I am writing this article from the comfort of my hotel room in Jean Nevada. It is Thanksgiving eve and I need a break from my ill-fated attempt at hitting a progressive jackpot on a $5 video poker machine out here. My plan included using the points and drawing tickets I earned to garner a few of the $500/ hour prizes they plan to give away in 26 separate drawings over the thanksgiving weekend. Traffic was not so bad today, actually, but then I left at 5 am! Those who left later did worse.

Since this is the vegasbg.net site, I thought it would be appropriate to discuss my other pastime, aside from tournament backgammon.

Having won the SuperJackpot this year I was accosted, (that's right, accosted), by the president/leader/CEO... whatever his title is: Mike Maxakuli. Mike is mad at me, because I haven't written for you sooner, it seems... and he has devised a diabolical plan to expose me to the entire backgammon community, because he thinks that I win too much!

I would like to formally apologize to him for not returning a couple of his phone calls when I had to get off the phone quickly while I was at work. I don't want to apologize for winning the SJP, though, because while I cash a lot it seems to me that I hardly ever win.

Max was uninspired by this explanation, and told me that he has his computer guru compiling statistics that will prove that I have cashed more than anyone else in backgammon over the last few years!

Please, Max, don't throw me into the briar patch! Anything but that. I am not at all sure that I would be able to withstand all of the extra adulation, not to mention the groupies!

Max had been around a long time when I showed up and as you know he is intimately familiar with backgammon's yesteryears. I am intimate with backgammon of today, where computer analysis has produced many of todays experts. Those with low error rates on Snowie and Gnu, tend to acquit themselves very well on average.

If he were alive to hear Max rant about my success, Barclay Cooke might find a paradox amongst Max's fact finding statistics.

For, you see, I am not a player that plays with a low error rate. My average is about 5, and maybe a tad higher even. I once played @ 1.8 in a finals match with Malcolm Davis, but I think that was the best match I ever played. This year, the semifinals and finals were recorded and I played 4.5 and 6.5 respectively. Ed O'laughlin my opponent in the finals played an admirable 2.9. So, I would have to say that I was very lucky to win, wouldn't you?

However, if we take Max' assertion seriously, then we must start looking for clues as to why this paradox could occur. That is, clearly NOT the best player having one of the very best results among active players. I always play with the best players and always enter every event I can at a tournament.

I would identify this as the first reason that my name appears in many tournament results tabulations. I go, and I play. I have a job, with flexible scheduling so that I have the money and the time in addition to the inclination to play in many tournaments both at home and abroad. If you aren't IN it, then you can't WIN it. I believe that I am now the #3 player all time in the American Backgammon Tour points system. However, I might still be considered an underachiever of sorts, since I may well have played in the second most ABT events, (Neil Kazaross has played more, I think).

The other reason, and the long awaited point of this article, is this:

I have a high terror rate. Even though my error rate is not low, I have learned to put the fear of God into my opponents. Perhaps some of them, having noticed my name in the tournament results come to the table a bit intimidated? I don't know, but sometimes I fell like I get a little too much respect over the table. But then, I try to make it a struggle to play with me, so maybe I manufactured this attitude.

Mostly, what I mean when I use the term TERROR RATE, is that I have a lot of online and real life experience. Not as much online as some people, but more over the board than most. I think it is a good balance, and I spend a fair amount of time reflecting on the game. One technique that I have found to be effective for me is to imagine the kinds of positions that I do not like to be in myself, and then try to recreate those situations for my OPPONENTS! Especially when it comes to doubling, I like to do it in a position where I know that I would be very uncomfortable about taking. Many players don't think through their doubling far enough, I think. They look at a position, anticipate having to hit loose, imagine getting hit back, and perhaps fanning on a 3 point board, (like they always do), and then they balk at the first hurdle.

The thing is, you can't take advantage of your opponents fear factor, if yours stops you from acting in the first place. When you are leery of doubling, that is a valid feeling of course. However, if you routinely hesitate at these times then you make your opponents job much easier.

Lets say that you reach a position you know you are the favorite, but don't know if it is right to double or not. You know, however that you would not really like to be doubled in the same position... So, I say ... He who hesitates is lost. SEND IT OVER, man! In this way you have added a leg to your opponents parlay to win the game and or match.

Before you doubled, or redoubled, him all he had to do was get lucky in the board position to win the game. Now, he must TAKE THE CUBE, then get lucky and win the position on the board. See?

Another psychological "secret" that I know ... is that people are much more comfy with 2 cubes. They can take them, because they have become accustomed to that. Giving it back at 4 may cause them some concern ... and they tend to wait until they have a lock. So, it isn't so bad to give an early one to a cautious opponent, one that will give you a couple of rolls to clean off your shoes if you step in some poop!

Quite likely the most potent weapon at your disposal is to take all reasonable 2 cubes and then be prepared to send over a well timed re-whip! It is psychologically devastating in a tournament situation. Again, people are comfy doubling when they have an advantage, and some of them like to gamble and send over 4 cubes when they get even a slight edge... But mostly ALL of them, including experts HATE to take those 4 cubes, and have 4 or even the possibility of 8 points riding on this game... The one they have been already so unlucky in, to have had a putz like you turn it around on them. They will make all sorts of excuses for passing takes at these critical moments!

Hell, I take the 4 cubes too! Then watch the leader play tight. It is amazing how the higher cubes can affect even an expert's game. In the end, what you want to be is cool under pressure. Easier said than done, but do your homework and take the close ones. Even if you are wrong, you are not playing a computer that will squeeze all the equity out of a position. Many a small pass has been turned into an easy take by an over cautious human, trust me.

The repeated winners are the cool customers. Watch Frank Talbot sometime... Or even Max! How much fear does he show? He sent off many a player whining to me in last years limited jackpot event, because he played fearlessly!

Imagine what scares you, and then use it on your opponents.

See you at the next tournament,

Ray